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The GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 1.3107 level on Thursday, which we identified as strong support, showing new growth and breaking the trend line, only to pull back immediately after. We believe the downward trend is over, but, as often happens, the pair may first correct before resuming its growth. Despite the British currency falling again overnight, it was in an upward trend for most of the previous day. Were there local reasons for this? No, there were not. If the pair had dropped by 100 pips yesterday, it would have been reasonable given the news and events throughout the day. Recall that the official conclusion of the US shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, was announced in the morning. Also, reports on UK GDP and industrial production were released and came in worse than expected. Therefore, the British pound had no grounds for growth yesterday, yet still increased. As we can see, movements remain illogical, and we remind traders that any growth now is justified based on global factors and reasons. Any decline is, by default, a correction and a technical movement.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has broken the trend line, so in the coming weeks, we expect the British currency to rise regardless of any local news or reports. As we have mentioned, there are no global grounds for a prolonged increase in the dollar, so we only expect movement to the upside in the medium term. If the correction/flat on the daily timeframe is completed, the pair may resume the global upward trend for 2025.
On Friday, novice traders can expect new trading signals to form in the areas of 1.3096-1.3107 and 1.3203-1.3211.
On the 5-minute timeframe, current trading levels to consider are 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. On Friday, no significant events or reports are scheduled for the UK or the US, so volatility may once again be quite low today.
Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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