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The American dollar, despite statements from Federal Reserve representatives, ceded some positions against the euro and the British pound but maintained a bullish momentum against the Japanese yen.
Statements from Fed officials about the need for caution in interest rate cuts no longer have a significant effect on the dollar. Traders have adapted to the central bank's rhetoric and have stopped interpreting it as a definitive signal for strengthening the American currency. Instead, the focus has shifted to macroeconomic data, which has been lacking recently regarding the U.S.
Today, we await data on the trade balance for Germany and France, as well as a speech from the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. These events will undoubtedly contribute to shaping the outlook for the EUR/USD pair. The trade balance data from Germany will serve as an indicator of the overall state of the European economy and the country's export competitiveness. An improvement in the figures may support the euro, while a deterioration will exert pressure on it. However, the most significant event of the day will be President Nagel's speech. His comments regarding the current economic situation in Germany and the eurozone, as well as the prospects for the European Central Bank's monetary policy, could have a substantial impact on the euro's exchange rate.
Regarding the pound, this morning we expect the Halifax House Price Index and a speech from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill. These events could introduce additional volatility into the currency market. The Halifax house price report is an important indicator of the state of the British real estate market, and its dynamics often influence consumer sentiment and the country's overall economic health. If the data comes in below expectations, it may exert pressure on the pound, heightening concerns about slowing economic growth.
Pill's speech is also worthy of close attention. Traders will carefully analyze his rhetoric—especially after the central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged yesterday.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to apply the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, the best approach would be the Momentum strategy.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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