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Today, gold briefly surpassed the key $4,000 level, but failed to hold above it. At the same time, the U.S. dollar also declined.
On Wednesday, the sixth week of the U.S. government shutdown began, marking the longest in history, surpassing the previous 35-day record set during Donald Trump's first presidential term. Economists are expressing concern about how this prolonged shutdown might affect key economic indicators. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has calculated that such a suspension could reduce U.S. GDP by 1–2% in the fourth quarter. As a result, the U.S. dollar, which had recently reached its highest levels since late May, retreated, and gold prices attracted new buyers.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered preparations for nuclear testing, following last week's statement by U.S. President Donald Trump expressing Washington's intention to resume nuclear tests. In addition, Russia intensified its offensive, launching artillery strikes in eastern Ukraine, further boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Automated data analysis showed that private-sector employment in the U.S. increased by 42,000 in October, significantly exceeding both expectations of 25,000 and the previous month's figure of –29,000. The ISM Services PMI also rose to an eight-month high, confirming stronger business activity. Similarly, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to an eight-month high, reinforcing signs of economic resilience.
Following the recent hawkish statement by the Federal Reserve, investors lowered expectations of a December rate cut by 25 basis points. This stance could limit gold buying interest, requiring caution from bulls, and may also reduce the dollar's corrective decline.
In external trade developments, on Wednesday China announced an extension of its unilateral suspension of import tariffs on U.S. goods for another year, reinforcing the agreement reached last week between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
From a technical perspective, a break above the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA) could trigger short-covering toward the horizontal resistance at $4,020–4,030. Minor follow-up buying above the $4,040–4,045 range could shift the short-term bearish trend in favor of the bulls, paving the way toward the $4,100 round level, with intermediate resistance near $4,075.
On the other hand, a drop below the $3,965 support level may continue to attract buyers, helping to limit gold's downside near the $3,940–3,935 level. The next key levels are $3,910–3,900 and last week's low at $3,886. Failure to hold these levels would serve as a new trigger for bearish momentum.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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