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The EUR/USD currency pair once again exhibited absurd movements on Wednesday. This time, the market ignored positive U.S. macroeconomic data, reaffirming our assumptions about the illogical current strength of the dollar and the independence of the ongoing movement from fundamentals and macroeconomic factors. Recall that on Monday, the ISM manufacturing activity index from the U.S. was ignored, coming in much worse than expected. On Wednesday, the ISM services activity index was also disregarded, which was significantly better than forecasts. Simultaneously, the market paid no attention to the ADP report, which also came in better than expected; however, a figure of +42,000 new jobs for the U.S. economy is, to put it mildly, "below par." Thus, the pair's purely technical decline continues. It is progressing within the flat range of 1.1400–1.1830 on the daily timeframe. This decline may conclude soon, and we continue to anticipate only growth in the medium term.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a new downward trend. The ascending trend line has been breached, and the overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. Thus, solely on technical grounds, the European currency may continue its decline, with the flat on the daily timeframe still being relevant. However, we are awaiting its conclusion and a resumption of the upward trend for 2025.
On Thursday, novice traders can expect to see growth continue, targeting 1.1527, following yesterday's buy signal. A bounce from this level would present an opportunity to open short positions targeting 1.1474. If the level of 1.1527 is breached, long positions can be held with a target at 1.1571.
On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. On Thursday, reports on retail sales and industrial production in Germany are scheduled for release in the Eurozone. In the U.S., the calendar of events is empty, but at present, the market is hardly paying attention to macroeconomic data.
Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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