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Last Friday, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.78%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.97%. The industrial Dow Jones rose by 0.47%.
Today, US and European stock index futures extended their gains, while oil prices declined amid speculation that a meeting between US and Russian leaders could increase the chances of ending the war in Ukraine and boost crude oil supplies. Investors, weary of uncertainty and fearful of escalation, seized the opportunity to see a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. The drop in oil prices, driven by the prospect of higher supply, adds confidence by easing inflation concerns and supporting economic activity. However, behind this optimism lie certain risks. A meeting between leaders is only an opportunity, not a guarantee of peace. The complexity of the negotiation process, the depth of disagreements, and the involvement of multiple parties make any forecast premature. Moreover, even with a favorable outcome, Ukrainian authorities may not accept all agreements reached between Russia and the US.
Futures on European equities and the S&P 500 index rose by 0.2%. Oil fell by 0.6%. Gold also declined, indicating reduced investor concerns ahead of Donald Trump's upcoming meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Asian equities gained 0.3%, while the US dollar weakened by 0.2%. Bitcoin surged 3.2% to surpass $122,000, nearing its record high.
The initial reaction in commodity markets—declines in both gold and oil prices—underscores the optimistic investor sentiment for a breakthrough in US–Russia talks this week. The meeting is scheduled for this Friday in Alaska. Any deal between the parties would not only sustain market optimism but could also mark this week as a historic turning point.
Against this backdrop, European countries are also pushing for talks with Trump ahead of his upcoming Alaska meeting. Over the weekend, diplomatic activity was in full swing: national security advisers from Europe, Ukraine, and the US met in the UK and made significant progress toward ending hostilities.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin moved closer to its all-time high, as demand from institutional investors and corporate treasury bond buyers fueled the broader digital asset rally. Over the weekend, Ethereum surged above $4,300, reaching its highest level since December 2021.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, buyers' main task today will be to break through the nearest resistance at $6,400. This could trigger further growth and pave the way for a push toward $6,414. Equally important for the bulls will be maintaining control above $6,428, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downturn amid weaker risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,392. A breakdown of this level could quickly push the instrument back to $6,385 and open the path toward $6,373.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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