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Today, the USD/CAD pair continues to hold a defensive position, remaining under pressure.
The U.S. dollar is still struggling to attract meaningful buying interest amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September.
In addition, a modest recovery in oil prices is supporting the Canadian dollar, which is commodity-linked, thereby exerting pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump's statement about plans to raise tariffs on Canadian goods from 25% to 35% is worsening the outlook for exports and the domestic economy. This comes against the backdrop of the Bank of Canada's earlier "dovish" pause in its monetary policy, which may limit further gains in the Canadian dollar and serve as an additional supporting factor for the U.S. dollar, requiring caution from bearish traders.
From a technical standpoint, daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, which suggests waiting for a break below the weekly low before opening short positions.
Given last week's failure near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), spot prices could accelerate their decline toward the psychological level of 1.3700, followed by a move toward 1.3650. A firm break below this level would pave the way toward the yearly low marked in June, with intermediate support near 1.3600.
On the other hand, yesterday's high just above the 1.3800 level may act as immediate resistance, followed by the 1.3840 level, where the 100-day SMA currently lies. Some renewed buying interest after a breakout above last week's high around 1.3880 would invalidate the bearish scenario and shift the momentum in favor of the bulls.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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