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On Tuesday, gold is pulling back from the round $3400 level, which acted as resistance. However, in the lead-up to the August 1 deadline for the introduction of new tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump, the price of the metal—as a safe-haven asset—may increase. Market sentiment is also being influenced by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve.
According to a White House spokesperson, there is a possibility that President Trump may soon dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, on Sunday, Trump denied this claim in a post on Truth Social, calling it "typical fake news." Additionally, Republican Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna formally accused Powell of providing false testimony on two separate occasions, both related to the long-planned renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters in Washington, D.C.
Moreover, Federal Reserve members remain divided on interest rate policy, with the majority favoring a rate cut—another factor supporting the precious metal.
FOMC member Adriana Kugler stated that the U.S. central bank should not lower rates "in the near term," noting that the Trump administration's tariffs are already affecting consumer prices. She emphasized that tight monetary policy is needed to anchor inflation expectations.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said last week that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" forecast, though she cautioned against delaying action. According to Daly, rates may ultimately stabilize at 3% or higher—above the pre-pandemic neutral level.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested that the central bank should lower its target rate at the July meeting, citing rising economic risks. He added that delaying such action could require more aggressive steps later on.
Technical Outlook: Gold prices are consolidating around the round $3400 level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating prevailing bullish momentum. A breakout above this level would likely pave the way toward the June high near $3450.
On the other hand, the nearest support is at $3365, followed by the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3358. A break below this area could weaken short-term momentum, bringing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day EMA at $3316 into focus. This level represents the last key support before the psychological $3300 level. A drop below $3300 would shift momentum in favor of the bears.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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