The legend in the InstaSpot team!
Legend! You think that's bombastic rhetoric? But how should we call a man, who became the first Asian to win the junior world chess championship at 18 and who became the first Indian Grandmaster at 19? That was the start of a hard path to the World Champion title for Viswanathan Anand, the man who became a part of history of chess forever. Now one more legend in the InstaSpot team!
Borussia is one of the most titled football clubs in Germany, which has repeatedly proved to fans: the spirit of competition and leadership will certainly lead to success. Trade in the same way that sports professionals play the game: confidently and actively. Keep a "pass" from Borussia FC and be in the lead with InstaSpot!
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell on Tuesday to the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the pound. This may signal the end of the recent downward movement. Today, growth may continue toward the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633. A breakout above this zone would increase the chances of further growth toward the next 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3749. A rebound from the resistance zone would allow the dollar to return to 1.3527.
The wave structure suggests that the bullish trend remains intact. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the two subsequent downward waves did not reach a new low. Therefore, we are not seeing a trend reversal to bearish but rather a series of corrective waves. Bearish traders still lack reasons to establish their own trend, while the dollar has very few supporting factors. Trump's trade war continues to have a damaging effect on the U.S. currency.
On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced not only a delay in tariff hikes for the European Union but also new tariffs. This time they target imports of copper and pharmaceuticals. The U.S. president now intends to protect domestic producers not only of aluminum and steel but also copper. Accordingly, copper tariffs could be set at 50%. It is not yet clear when they may be introduced. Trump also mentioned plans for 200% tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals but is willing to postpone this step to give producers time to "sort things out." Given the introduction of new tariffs and the limited number of signed trade agreements, I expect another drop in the dollar. However, it's important not to overlook the chart setup—this anticipated decline is based on news sentiment and may unfold later than today. Therefore, close attention should be paid to the chart and trading signals.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar just a few points short of the 127.2% corrective level at 1.3795. Since the drop was unexpected and may end quickly, the hourly chart is more suitable for analysis at the moment. No emerging divergences are visible on any indicator. The bullish trend remains in place.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 7,302, while the number of Short positions rose by 10,298. However, bears have long since lost their advantage in the market and have no real prospects for success. The gap between Long and Short positions is 32,000 in favor of bulls: 107,000 vs. 75,000.
In my view, while there is still downward potential for the pound, the events of 2025 have completely shifted the long-term market outlook. Over the past four months, Long positions have increased from 65,000 to 107,000, while Shorts have decreased from 76,000 to 75,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT reports show that traders lack the desire to buy the dollar. Thus, regardless of broader news sentiment, the dollar continues to decline amid developments surrounding Donald Trump.
Economic calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
On Wednesday, the economic calendar contains no major events. As a result, news background will not significantly influence trader sentiment today.
GBP/USD outlook and trading recommendations:
Selling the pair is possible today after a rebound from the 1.3611–1.3633 level, with a target at 1.3527. Buying can be considered if the pair closes above the 1.3611–1.3633 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3749. Buying was also possible following a rebound from the 1.3527 level.
Fibonacci grids are plotted:
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
InstaSpot analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaSpot client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.
