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Today, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of recovery, rising toward the 1.3700 level and approaching the weekly high reached earlier. Fundamental factors point to bullish dominance and the potential for further growth in the exchange rate.
Investors expect that higher U.S. tariffs will fuel inflation and allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. Concerns over the negative economic impact of U.S. trade policy are reducing appetite for risk assets, which supports the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset and keeps the USD/CAD pair near a two-week high.
An additional factor weighing on the Canadian dollar is U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to escalate trade wars, including imposing tariffs of up to 200% on imported pharmaceuticals and 50% on copper. Since the U.S. is the largest market for Canadian copper, such measures negatively affect the Canadian dollar and support the upward movement of USD/CAD. Furthermore, the lack of oil price growth significantly impacts the Canadian dollar, which is closely tied to commodity prices.
Thus, short-term fundamental analysis confirms a bullish outlook for the USD/CAD pair. However, for better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes during the U.S. session, which may offer new signals regarding the Fed's monetary policy and strengthen demand for the U.S. dollar, fueling further growth in the USD/CAD pair.
From a technical perspective, daily chart oscillators remain in negative territory, which may limit upward movement for now. The nearest resistance the pair must overcome to continue rising is the psychological level of 1.3700. Support is located at 1.3635, followed by the key level of 1.3600.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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