05.05.202500:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

The hit parade of American news and events will continue. I still believe that the most significant factor in the market is Donald Trump's decisions. It's enough to compare the price movements of both instruments during periods when Trump actively imposed tariffs versus periods when he remained silent to understand just how important this news is for the market. Last week only reinforced this observation, as all the key U.S. reports triggered completely inconsistent reactions. This leads to the conclusion that there was effectively no reaction at all — the market was trading in accordance with Trump's silence. The U.S. dollar slightly improved its position, but not significantly.

In the new week, the U.S. will see the release of the ISM Services PMI and the Federal Reserve meeting. The FOMC, led by Jerome Powell, still awaits tangible economic changes. One such change was seen this week — GDP growth slowed by 0.3% in Q1 on a quarterly basis, a result not expected even by pessimists. However, I believe this won't prompt the Fed to act quickly, as the labor market has shown reasonably strong results, and the unemployment rate in April did not rise. Therefore, the Fed's only "headache" at this stage is economic growth — which is now absent.

I believe that monetary policy easing will only resume if unemployment begins to rise and Nonfarm Payrolls decline. The faster these two developments occur, the greater the likelihood of rate cuts. But inflation should not be forgotten either. If inflation continues to rise alongside those two trends, the Fed may remain silent. Practically, no one expects a rate cut next week. Therefore, while the overall situation won't worsen for the dollar, that offers little comfort under current conditions.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair is continuing to build a new bullish wave segment. Soon, the wave count will depend entirely on the stance and actions of the U.S. President. This must always be kept in mind. From a purely wave-based perspective, I had expected a three-wave correction within wave 2. However, wave 2 has already ended in a single-wave form. Wave 3 of the upward trend has begun, and its targets could extend to the 1.25 area. Reaching these levels will depend entirely on Trump. A corrective wave may form at the moment, but growth is expected to resume once it is complete.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has shifted. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may experience numerous shocks and reversals that defy wave theory and any other form of technical analysis. The presumed wave 2 has been completed, as the price has moved beyond the peak of wave 1. Therefore, we should expect the formation of bullish wave 3, with short-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. It would be helpful to see a corrective wave 2 within wave 3, but the dollar would need to strengthen. And for that to happen, someone would have to start buying it.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often require revisions.
2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction does not and cannot exist. Always remember to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.