17.04.202512:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Gold is undergoing a corrective pullback today as traders take profits following its recent surge to a new all-time high. This decline, although moderate, is driven by several factors, including improved risk sentiment supported by renewed optimism over U.S. trade negotiations and a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Profit-taking is placing additional downward pressure on gold prices. March retail sales in the U.S. surged by 1.4%—the highest monthly gain in two years. This upbeat figure, which exceeded market expectations and followed a revised 0.2% increase in the previous month, points to a recovery in consumer demand.

However, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted, the central bank does not plan to lower interest rates anytime soon due to potential inflationary pressures linked to current tariff policies. This outlook presents further headwinds for gold's continued rally.

Nonetheless, the U.S.-China trade war remains a key concern. Escalating tariffs and new export restrictions—such as licensing requirements on rare earth metals and semiconductor chips—continue to inject uncertainty into the global market, which in turn sustains demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Investors should also pay attention to today's U.S. economic data, including weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, due during the U.S. trading session. These figures could provide traders with fresh opportunities to adjust their strategies in a shifting market landscape.

From a technical standpoint, current overbought conditions reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest the need for consolidation or a pullback. This creates an opportunity for new bullish positions—particularly if the price holds steady near the key $3,300 level. However, a break below this threshold could trigger deeper losses.