14.03.202508:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on March 14? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are few macroeconomic events scheduled for Friday, and none of them are significant. The UK will release reports on GDP and industrial production, but strong figures are not expected. Additionally, the GDP report will be monthly rather than quarterly, so the market's reaction is anticipated to be minimal. Germany will also publish an inflation report, which is unlikely to attract much interest from traders. This is primarily because it is the second estimate for February and reflects inflation in just one of the 27 EU countries. Over the past two weeks, the market has overlooked even more important reports. The U.S. will release the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, but this is also not considered particularly important.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Although there are no significant fundamental events on Friday, the market continues to react primarily to Donald Trump's decisions and statements. Key issues currently on the agenda include tariffs on the European Union, a potential trade war with Canada, and the resolution of the military conflict in Ukraine. As a result, it is impossible to predict what news might emerge regarding these topics.

General Conclusions:

On the final trading day of the week, both currency pairs may move in any direction, as the market is currently driven by emotions, with Donald Trump as a central influence. If the U.S. president announces new sanctions or tariffs, the dollar could face renewed pressure. Conversely, if there is no news from Trump, both pairs might experience minor corrections. However, the pound, for example, shows no signs of interest in correcting at this time.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.