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Futures on the S&P 500 index rose by 0.2% after losing 0.76% at the end of the previous day, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.3% after closing at -0.18%.
Stocks in Asia climbed alongside futures in Europe and the U.S. after President Donald Trump attempted to reassure bankers and major business owners during a meeting where he spoke optimistically about economic prospects and the measures he is taking to stimulate growth.
Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index continued to decline as Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect without exemptions. U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened against all its G10 peers ahead of today's consumer inflation data release.
President Trump confidently dismissed concerns about an impending U.S. recession despite financial market volatility triggered by his trade policies. During his speech, he emphasized the resilience of the U.S. economy, pointing to low unemployment and continued growth. He acknowledged that trade disputes with China could create uncertainty but expressed confidence that they would ultimately benefit American manufacturers and consumers. He also reiterated that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates to support the economy.
Trump also informed top executives that he is prioritizing expedited approvals, particularly for environmental regulations, and plans to announce a major energy project soon. He reiterated the possibility of lowering corporate taxes for businesses that manufacture their products in the U.S.
However, Wall Street analysts remain cautious, citing slowing global economic growth and the potential negative impact of the trade war on corporate profits and investments. Many economists believe the risk of a recession in the next 12 months has increased significantly.
Trump's tariff policies, geopolitical shifts related to Ukraine, persistent inflation, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts have weighed on markets this year, leading to a significant correction in the U.S. stock market. The stock volatility index VIX is now hovering around its highest level since August, while a similar measure for Treasury bonds is at levels not seen since November, as market participants remain concerned about U.S. economic growth.
News also emerged yesterday about an agreement reached in Saudi Arabia between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives for a 30-day ceasefire, with the outcome now depending on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Regarding U.S. consumer inflation, which will be released today, economists predict it will remain elevated following a significant increase in January, indicating that progress in curbing price growth has stalled. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 0.3% in February after a 0.5% increase at the start of the year.
In commodities, oil continued to rise as the U.S. lowered its forecast for a global supply surplus. Gold maintained its gains, supported by demand for safe-haven assets.
As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the decline continues. The primary task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance at $5594. This would support further growth and open the door for a move toward $5617. Equally important for bulls will be maintaining control above $5645, strengthening buyers' positions. If risk appetite weakens and the index moves downward, buyers must step in around $5567. A breakout below this level could quickly push the index back to $5539 and open the way toward $5515.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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