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Gold is struggling to attract strong buyers amid the Federal Reserve's hawkish surprise, which forecasts only one rate cut in 2024. In addition, stronger-than-expected US business activity index data released on Friday indicates a resilient economy. This has helped the US dollar to extend its positive momentum from the previous week and rise to its highest level since May 9, thereby restraining further growth in the price of the precious metal.
Also, traders should prefer to wait for important US macroeconomic data scheduled for release this week. This includes final GDP data for the first quarter and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Today, attention should be paid to the Consumer Confidence Index, which will be released later during the US session.
From a technical standpoint, Friday's decline can be attributed to breaking through the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). However, subsequent declines have currently stalled ahead of a rising trend line from two weeks ago, which is currently around $2315. This area can now be considered a key support level.
Considering that the oscillators on the daily chart have turned into negative territory, a convincing breakthrough of the mentioned levels will make gold vulnerable to weakening below the round level of $2300 and lead to a retest of the monthly low of around $2285.
Any subsequent selling pressure will be seen as a new trigger for bears, exposing support around the 100-day SMA to around $2250. The downward trajectory could extend towards support levels at $2225-2220 before potentially falling to the round level of $2200.
On the other hand, the 50-day SMA acts as a direct strong barrier just before Friday's peak at $2369. Subsequent buying could push the price of the yellow metal towards an intermediate barrier around $2388.10 on the way to the round level of $2400. Sustained growth above this round level will nullify any short-term negative forecasts and allow the XAU/USD pair to revisit the historical high around $2450 reached in May.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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