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The price test of 1.0675 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by about 30 pips. The absence of Eurozone data kept volatility at a low level, but the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged and to give the market a little more time was quite unexpected, although it didn't lead to any significant change in the balance of power. The pair continues to trade in a sideways channel, and a breakthrough will determine the direction. This could happen tomorrow, after an important report on the US labor market.
Today, we should pay attention to the German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data. It is expected to be quite weak, especially for Germany, as there is nothing to brag amid high energy prices. Bad figures will exert pressure on the euro, but good figures will please the bulls. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0735 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0792. At the level of 1.0792, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today only after very good eurozone data. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0704 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0735 and 1.0792.
Scenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0704 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0657, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0735 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0704 and 1.0657.
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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