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The price test of 154.86 at the beginning of the US session occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was in overbought territory, clearly limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not buy, and I did not wait for the second test to execute the second scenario for selling. Another price test at 154.71 in the afternoon occurred when the MACD was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the signal to sell the dollar. However, the pair did not sharply fall despite disappointing US data. Today, the market ignored the data on the services price index in Japan, which, in the absence of the Bank of Japan's interference, made it possible for the dollar to renew yearly highs, maintaining its upward trend in the medium-term. However, be cautious with buying at current levels. It's better to wait for pullbacks and rely on scenario No. 2. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 154.98 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 155.29 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 155.29, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today based on the trend after breaking through the daily high. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 154.82 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 154.98 and 155.29.
Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 154.82 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 154.55, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return after an unsuccessful breakout of the daily high and active actions by the central bank. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 154.98 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.82 and 154.55.
The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market
Important: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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