26.03.202419:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. Analysis for March 26th. The first important report of the week did not impress the market

The wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair remains quite understandable and, at the same time, remains complex. The construction of a downward trend segment continues, the first wave of which has taken on a rather extended form. The second wave also turned out to be quite prolonged, which gives us every reason to expect prolonged construction and a third wave.

At the moment, I am confident that the construction of wave 2 or b is complete. Wave 2 or b has taken on a three-wave form (A-B-C), but its internal wave structure is very complex. Theoretically, wave 2 or b could extend up to 100% of wave 1 or a. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 1.2876 (lower image), which corresponds to 76.4% according to Fibonacci, may indicate the long-awaited completion of the upward wave.

Targets for the decline of the pair within the assumed wave 3 or c are below the level of 1.2039, which corresponds to the low of wave 1 or a. Unfortunately, wave analysis tends to be complicated and does not correspond to the news background. At this time, I do not reject the working scenario, but the market does not yet see reasons for long-term sales of the pair.

The British pound retains the possibility of a decline to the 25 figure.

The GBP/USD pair remained unchanged throughout Tuesday. However, in the first half of the day, it rose, and in the second half, it fell. From this, sellers have a stronger position during the American session, so by the end of the day, the US dollar may strengthen its position. Since all speeches by ECB, Fed, and Bank of England members in the first two days of the week were ignored by the market, attention could only be focused on the single important report - orders for durable goods in the US, which became available a few hours ago. Order volumes in February increased by 1.4%, which exceeded market expectations, but at the same time, the January value was revised to -6.9% on a monthly basis. It turned out that the decline in January completely negated the growth in February. The same applies to other indicator values. Excluding transportation orders, volumes increased by 0.5%, but a month earlier, they decreased by 0.3%. Excluding defense orders, volumes increased by 2.2%, but a month earlier they decreased by a whole 7.9%. Therefore, in general, this report did not support dollar buyers, although the US currency showed a slight increase in the last few hours. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 1.2585, which is equivalent to 50.0% according to Fibonacci (lower image), caused quotes to retreat from the lows reached last week, but now the British pound may resume its decline within wave 3 or c.

General conclusions.

The wave picture of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At this time, I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the level of 1.2039, as wave 3 or c will start sooner or later. However, until wave 2 or b is completed with one hundred percent certainty, an increase in the pair can be expected up to the level of 1.3140, which corresponds to 100.0%, according to Fibonacci. The construction of wave 3 or c may have already started, but the retreat of quotes from the peaks reached still needs to be bigger to be confident in this conclusion.

On the larger wave scale, the picture is similar to the EUR/USD pair, but there are still some differences. The downward correctional trend segment continues its construction, and its second wave has taken on an extended form - up to 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this level could have led to the start of wave 3 or c construction.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play with; they often bring changes.
2. If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.
3. There is no one hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement, and there can never be. Remember about Stop Loss protective orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.