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Trade analysis and trading tips for the British pound
The price test of 1.2622 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD had risen significantly from the zero mark, limiting the pair's further downward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound – especially remembering the recent decision of the Bank of England regarding potential interest rate cuts. In the second half of the day, we await figures on the volume of home sales in the primary market in the USA, where weak indicators will surely put more pressure on the dollar, leading to an increase in risky assets. It is also worth listening to interviews and statements by FOMC member Raphael Bostic and FOMC member Lisa D. Cook. A soft tone is a reason to eliminate the dollar and buy the pound. But remember, you will be buying against the trend, so this should be approached carefully. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2645 (green line) with a growth target of 1.2670 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2670, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pound growth today can only be expected after weak data from the USA and a successful breakthrough of the daily maximum. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2628 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turn upward. Expect growth to reach opposite levels of 1.2645 and 1.2670.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.2628 is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decrease in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2597, where I will exit sales and open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves only against the backdrop of a firm position from the representatives of the Federal Reserve. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decrease.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2645 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turn downward. Expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.2628 and 1.2597.
On the chart:
Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line - expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, using overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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