13.07.202310:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Falling US inflation precludes further increase in Fed rates

Consumer inflation continues to decline in the US, forcing even the most conservatively inclined market players to believe that the Federal Reserve, despite its promises, will not raise interest rates in the coming months.

According to published data, the US consumer price index in June rose to 0.2% m/m, but fell to 3.0% y/y. Markets could not ignore this news, so stocks rallied while dollar began weakening, thereby pushing the ICE dollar index down below 101.00. Crude oil prices, on the other hand, broke out of the narrow price range it has been since May of this year.

Judging by the dynamics, the stock rally that started yesterday will continue today, primarily supported by the fall in Treasury yields and weakening of dollar in the forex market. Talks about recession in the US will also leave the press, and some FOMC members' arguments that interest rates need to be raised twice more will begin to thin out. The Fed may also confirm that it will not continue the rate hikes, especially if the producer price index data shows a decline in growth to 0.4% y/y. This could be another reason to strengthen the rally in stock markets and weaken both Treasury yields and dollar. Such a trend may persist until the end of this month.

Most likely, the ICE dollar index will break the strong psychological level of 100.00 points today and aim for the next support level of 99.00 points.

Forecasts for today:

AUD/USD

The pair rose in price, as the possibility of seeing further rate hikes continue to weaken and commodity assets began to climb up. And since the pair trades above 0.6815, the level of 0.6900 may be reached soon.

USD/CAD

The pair fell under pressure due to the weakening of dollar demand and rising crude oil prices. A drop below 1.3145 will likely lead to a further decline to 1.3040.