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Judging by what is happening in the currency market, the passions around the energy crisis in Europe have somewhat subsided as the media no longer publish horrifying new details. Energy prices seem to have slightly stabilized, although they remain extremely high. At the same time, the governments of the EU countries are increasingly announcing the allocation of additional funds to support businesses and consumers. Nevertheless, if the US dollar shows a decline, then it is extremely limited. Its behavior is more reminiscent of what happened in the second half of September 16 and the first half of September 17, when the euro and the pound showed extremely modest and sluggish attempts to grow, followed by a new wave of collapse. Indeed, there is no extremely negative news, but there is also no positive news, which further convinces us of the inevitability of the prolonged nature of the crisis and disastrous consequences for the economy as a whole. It is these fears that limit the growth potential of European currencies. The most likely development of events today is a kind of stagnation, accompanied by a symbolic and extremely insignificant weakening of the dollar since over the previous few trading days the scale of its growth turned out to be simply incredible. However, this is only if there are no new data and messages of a negative nature regarding the situation in the European energy market.
A sharp decline brought the quote to the area of the 1.1700 level, where there was a reduction in the volume of short positions and a technical pullback. The oversold status is still present in the market, which may slow down the downward cycle, but not end it. Further growth in the volume of short positions is currently possible. The price is kept below the level of 1.1700 in a four-hour period.
The GBP/USD pair has passed more than 150 points on a downward trajectory in two trading days, restoring the volume of dollar positions by almost 100%. Due to the sharp price change, the pound's oversold status appeared, which led to a technical pullback from the level of 1.3640. It can be assumed that the descending cycle will slow down the formation for a while, which will lead to the construction of a pullback or stagnation. A subsequent increase in the volume of short positions is possible if the price is kept below the level of 1.3640 on an H4 period.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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