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At the beginning of the European session on Monday, gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to fluctuate below the upper boundary of the range formed about a week ago. Weekend developments strengthened expectations of a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, weakening the U.S. dollar and supporting gold prices. Nevertheless, significant disagreements between the parties remain on key issues. Combined with expectations of a more aggressive ("hawkish") Federal Reserve policy, this is limiting the dollar's decline and restraining further gains in the non-yielding asset.
Late Saturday evening, Axios, citing a representative of the U.S. administration, reported that Washington and Tehran had moved closer to an agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, during which shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the key parameters of a peace agreement had already been largely finalized. This increased investors' risk appetite, while the subsequent decline in oil prices weakened inflation expectations and led to a noticeable drop in U.S. Treasury yields amid reduced liquidity conditions, as several global markets remained closed for holidays. As a result, the U.S. dollar came under additional pressure.
From a technical perspective, the nearest resistance level for gold is located at $4,600, while strong resistance for bulls stands at $4,450. A breakout above this level would provide bulls with additional momentum for further gains. Support is located at the psychological level of $4,500 and at $4,450, below which the 200-day SMA and the 200-day EMA, converging into a single line, would provide additional support. As long as oscillators remain in negative territory, bears retain the advantage.
*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。
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