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Gold surged by 1.2% today and is now trading around $4,562 per ounce, fully recovering from last week's moderate losses. The catalyst for this movement was reports that the U.S. and Iran are close to an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz—the prospect of reopening the strait lowers inflation expectations and, consequently, the need to maintain high interest rates for an extended period.
The logic here is somewhat paradoxical but quite understandable. A decrease in geopolitical tension might typically exert downward pressure on gold as a safe-haven asset. However, the war with Iran and the resulting energy shock have been the main pressures on the metal since late February: high inflation pushed rates higher, and high rates weighed on gold. Now the market is reversing the equation: peace means cheaper oil, lower inflation, and potential easing of monetary policy—all of which are positive for a non-yielding metal. This is why gold and bonds are rising alongside stocks.
Nevertheless, the reaction has been relatively muted, as we have seen many times how optimistic headlines regarding Iran have led to nothing. The market has yet to receive concrete evidence of Iranian cooperation. Key details of the nuclear program remain unresolved, which remains the main stumbling block.
It's worth noting that since the beginning of the conflict, gold is still down about 13%—and for a full reversal, the market needs more than just promises. The money market continues to price in a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, and a separate question remains about how the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, will act amid slowing inflation and the potential reopening of the Strait. Last Friday, during Warsh's inauguration, Trump immediately stated that he expects rate cuts from the new Fed head in the near future.
Silver has risen more significantly—up 3% to $77.79. Platinum and palladium are also in the positive. The Bloomberg dollar index has lost 0.3%.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,607. This will allow a target towards $4,656, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The furthest target will be $4,708. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control at $4,546. If this is successful, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and may push gold down to a low of $4,481 with the prospect of reaching $4,432.
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