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The GBP/USD pair made another reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar as soon as oil prices resumed rising and the situation in the Middle East moved closer to a new escalation. Despite the fact that Donald Trump has already postponed the deadline for attacks on Iranian energy facilities twice and speaks almost daily about negotiations with the "right people" in Iran, Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, continues shelling tankers attempting to pass through it, and shows no willingness to negotiate with Washington. Thus, under current conditions, traders prefer to assume that the conflict in the Middle East is serious and long-lasting.
Washington, to be fair, shows a desire to end the war, but on its own terms and in its own style. For an entire week, Donald Trump has been presenting the situation as if the opponent is pleading for peace, while Washington is ready to respond favorably—but only if a number of conditions are met (around 15, to be precise). From the outside, it looks like: let's end the war we started, here is a list of ultimatums. Iran understands what such a "Trump-style truce" entails and simply refuses any negotiations, despite offers to lift sanctions in exchange for abandoning nuclear weapons and development. Tehran is prepared to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and this is currently the most important factor for all markets. Thus, the geopolitical backdrop remains more negative than positive. As a result, any growth in the pound is limited. Meanwhile, the economic backdrop that could support the British currency is being ignored by traders.
The probability of further declines in both pairs remains quite high, and all discussions about a possible bullish advance at this point are merely assumptions without confirmation or evidence. At present, there are no patterns at all—neither new nor old. The last two imbalances can be considered completed, invalidated, and no longer relevant. Today, a liquidity sweep of the March 13 low may occur, along with the formation of a new bearish imbalance. It is possible that both scenarios will take place.
The bullish trend in the pound remains intact. As long as it holds (above the 1.3012 level), more attention should be given to bullish signals. However, there are currently no bullish patterns or signals, and geopolitics continues to favor only bearish pressure.
The information backdrop on Monday was absent, aside from a new series of statements by Donald Trump. Nevertheless, the pound's decline did not stop even today. The market is preparing for a new escalation in the Middle East.
In the United States, the overall information backdrop suggests that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar should be expected. Even the conflict between Iran and the U.S. changes little in this regard. The situation for the U.S. dollar remains difficult in the long term and positive only in the short term. The labor market continues to weaken, the economy is moving closer to recession, the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not planning further monetary tightening, and over the past weekend, a fourth large wave of protests against Donald Trump took place across the country. From an economic standpoint, there are no solid reasons for dollar growth.
A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive information backdrop for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. For now, geopolitics has supported the dollar for more than a month, but this support will eventually fade. It is hard to say when this will happen, so it cannot be ruled out that the U.S. currency may continue rising for another week, a month, or even several months. If a global conflict were to break out and military actions spread beyond the Middle East into the Eurasian continent, the dollar could rise significantly and for an extended period. However, I remain somewhat optimistic and hope this does not happen. In that case, the dollar's growth potential is limited by the duration of tension and military actions in the Middle East.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the United Kingdom:
On March 31, the economic calendar contains two entries, which may once again be overshadowed by geopolitical events. The impact of the information backdrop on market sentiment on Tuesday may be weak.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
For the pound, the long-term picture remains bullish, but there are currently no relevant bullish patterns. The decline of the pair in recent weeks has been so strong due to an unfavorable combination of circumstances. If Donald Trump had not initiated the conflict in the Middle East, such strong dollar growth would likely not have occurred. I believe this decline could end as unexpectedly as it began. However, at present, the bearish phase cannot be considered over.
In the near future, two interesting scenarios may emerge for traders. The first is a liquidity sweep of the March 13 low, followed by the formation of bullish patterns and then signals. The second is the formation of a bearish imbalance at today's close, followed by the emergence of sell signals based on that pattern.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
