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The GBP/USD pair made another reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar as soon as oil began to rise and the situation in the Middle East moved closer to a new escalation rather than a ceasefire. Over the past week, the direction of movement has changed almost daily, while trader activity remains high. The market continues to swing back and forth, as the news background changes almost every day. Most of the news relates to the "Iranian crisis," with conciliatory signals coming from the U.S. and more aggressive rhetoric from Iran.
In other words, Washington is showing a desire to end the war—but on its own terms and in its own style. That is, presenting it as if the opponent seeks peace, while Washington is graciously willing to meet halfway. From the outside, it looks like this: let's end the war that we started—here is a list of ultimatums. Iran understands what this kind of "Trump-style ceasefire" implies and simply refuses any negotiations, despite offers to lift sanctions in exchange for abandoning nuclear weapons and development programs. Tehran remains ready to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, the geopolitical background remains more negative than positive. Therefore, any growth of the British pound is limited. And the economic background, which could support the pound, does not interest traders.
The probability of a new decline in both pairs remains quite high, and all current discussions about a possible bullish move are merely assumptions without confirmation or facts. At the moment, there are no patterns at all—neither new nor old. The last two imbalances can be considered completed, invalidated, and forgotten. We have not seen any significant liquidity grabs recently either. Therefore, in any case, new patterns need to form.
The bullish trend for the pound remains intact. As long as it holds (above the 1.3012 level), I would pay more attention to bullish signals. However, there are currently no bullish patterns or signals, and geopolitics continues to hang over the euro and the pound like a "sword of Damocles."
The news background in the UK on Thursday was absent, while in the U.S., the report on initial jobless claims came out at 210,000, fully matching traders' expectations.
In the U.S., the overall information backdrop remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar should be expected. Even the war between Iran and the U.S. does not change much. The situation for the U.S. dollar remains quite difficult in the long term and positive only in the short term. U.S. labor market data continues to disappoint. Trump's military actions, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, the criminal case against Jerome Powell, government shutdowns, the scandal involving U.S. elites related to the Epstein case, a possible impeachment of Trump by the end of the year, and a likely Republican election loss all add to the current picture of political and structural crisis in America. In my view, bulls have everything needed to resume their advance in 2026, but at present, traders' minds are entirely focused on geopolitics and the energy crisis.
A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive information backdrop for the U.S. dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. For now, geopolitics has supported the dollar for over a month, but this support will begin to fade as soon as the Middle East conflict starts to be resolved. When that will happen is hard to say, so it cannot be ruled out that the U.S. currency may continue rising for another week, a month, or even several months. If a Third World War were to begin and military actions were to spread from the Middle East to the Eurasian continent, the dollar would rise strongly and for a long time. However, I remain at least somewhat optimistic and hope that this does not happen. In that case, the dollar's growth potential is limited by the negativity of events in the Middle East.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
On March 27, the economic calendar contains two entries that are far from the most important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be weak or absent.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
For the pound, the long-term picture remains bullish, but there are currently no valid bullish patterns. The decline of the pair in recent weeks has been so strong due to an unfortunate combination of circumstances. If Donald Trump had not started a war in the Middle East, we likely would not have seen such a strong rise in the dollar. I believe this decline may end as suddenly as it began. However, at present, the bearish move cannot be considered over. All recent imbalances have been invalidated, and there are no new ones.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
