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After falling below the last structural low and taking out two areas of bearish liquidity, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the euro and began a fairly rapid rise. Thus, at present, we can speak of liquidity being taken from the swing of November 5. However, a rise of 120–130 points does not yet indicate the end of the bearish phase or the start of a new bullish trend. Formally, the bullish trend was broken when the price dropped below 1.1465. However, I had warned that the pair could take liquidity from two obvious lows, in which case the bullish trend would not only remain intact but could also resume. Therefore, everything now depends on geopolitics and imbalance 12.
If the price reacts to imbalance 12, a new bearish signal will form which, given the break of the bullish trend, would imply a decline in the euro well below 1.1400. I would only consider this scenario likely if geopolitics continues to strongly support sellers. As mentioned earlier, this would require the situation in the Middle East not just to remain tense, but to deteriorate further. Oil prices would need to continue rising, more countries would need to become involved in the conflict, and the economies of developed countries would need to suffer significantly. The conflict itself would also need to drag on for many months. At present, there are no clear prerequisites for this.
Thus, the key pattern for this week remains bearish imbalance 12, which may provide traders with another sell signal. In the current situation, bulls can only rely on new liquidity grabs from the last two lows: 1.1470 and 1.1392. However, if tensions in the Middle East do not ease, even this may not help buyers.
The chart structure still indicates bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains in place, but traders on the buy side are currently in a difficult position due to the rapidly changing news flow. For the euro to rise, the conflict involving Iran would need to de-escalate, and oil and gas prices would need to decline. At the very least, the situation in the Middle East should not worsen. To open new buy positions, traders need new bullish patterns or at least liquidity grabs from the last two bearish swings. However, a liquidity grab is not a standalone pattern and is difficult to trade.
The news background on Tuesday was again weak. The Eurozone released very weak ZEW economic sentiment indices, while the U.S. published an equally weak ADP report. However, buyers dominated most of the day, which is somewhat encouraging. Personally, I remain aligned with the bullish trend.
In recent months, there have been many reasons for buyers to push higher, and even the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policies—which led to a significant weakening of the dollar last year—have not changed. In the short term, the dollar may strengthen due to risk aversion, but this factor is unlikely to provide sustained support. Meanwhile, dovish monetary policy expectations from the FOMC, Trump's trade conflicts, weakness in the U.S. labor market, government shutdowns, military actions, legal pressure on Jerome Powell, slowing GDP growth, and other negative factors for the U.S. remain in place despite the conflict with Iran.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support, but it is uncertain how long this will last. However, the bullish trend has technically been broken, and this must be acknowledged. There is still a chance for a liquidity grab and a resumption of the trend, but geopolitics continues to weigh heavily on the EUR/USD pair.
Economic calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On March 18, the economic calendar includes five events, three of which could shift market focus from geopolitics to the economy. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Wednesday may be present, but mainly in the evening and overnight.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The information backdrop shifted sharply two weeks ago, but the trend cannot yet be considered fully invalidated. Therefore, in the near term, traders need new patterns and signals to build short-term forecasts.
At present, sellers may receive a signal from imbalance 12, and since the bullish trend is close to breaking, this signal should be taken seriously. Buyers, meanwhile, can only rely on liquidity grabs from the lows at 1.1470 and 1.1392, the invalidation of imbalance 12, the formation of new bullish patterns, and the emergence of new buy signals.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
