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The EUR/USD pair bounced off the "bullish" imbalance 12 and reversed in favor of the European currency, just as I had warned. Thus, traders received yet another bullish signal, which allowed them to open long positions in the market. I would like to remind you that technical (chart) analysis has almost perfectly predicted price movements over the past few weeks. First, a signal was formed at imbalance 11, then the target in the form of the weekly imbalance was reached; a reaction followed from that imbalance, a correction into the nearest bullish imbalance, and a new buy signal appeared. This time, therefore, I expect the euro to rise above the peak of the week before last.
Overall, there is little to add to the chart picture beyond the key points. Buy signals are forming regularly, giving traders opportunities to trade rather than sit on the sidelines. The news background continues to put pressure on the dollar and bearish traders, so any buy signal has a probability of execution of 80% or higher. Last week, the dollar felt more or less stable for one simple reason: the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate were postponed to the current week. These reports are both the main threat and the main hope for the dollar at the same time.
It is possible that the labor market and unemployment reports turn out to be neutral (the figures match traders' expectations). In that case, a dollar decline should not be expected, and bears may even launch a counterattack. I would like to remind you that situations occur in the market when different types of analysis contradict each other. Tomorrow, the news background may cause the pair to decline, contrary to chart-based expectations.
The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact. A bullish signal was formed at imbalance 11, and slightly later another bullish signal appeared at imbalance 12. Thus, traders can once again keep long positions open. This time, without specific target patterns, because I see no point in using patterns that are five years old.
The news background on Tuesday was quite weak. In the United States, retail sales and ADP reports were released, but they attracted little attention. The market has only just recovered from news about Chinese banks banning purchases of U.S. government securities and is now actively preparing for labor market and unemployment reports.
Bulls have had plenty of reasons for a new offensive for the past 6–7 months, and each week there are only more of them. These include the (in any case) dovish prospects of FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the U.S.–China confrontation (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests by the American public against Trump under the "No Kings" banner, weakness in the labor market, the autumn government shutdown (which lasted a month and a half), and a new shutdown that occurred in early February. There is also U.S. military aggression toward certain countries, criminal prosecution of Powell, the "Greenland confusion," and the deterioration of relations with Canada and South Korea. Thus, in my view, further growth of the pair is entirely logical.
I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, so I do not even try to do so. The blue line shows the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered over. Bears would need to push the price down about 500 pips to reach it, and I consider this task impossible under the current news background and chart picture, which does not show a single bearish pattern.
The nearest upward target for the European currency, in my view, was the bearish imbalance at 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021. This pattern has now been fully filled. Above that, two levels can be highlighted: 1.2348 and 1.2564. These levels represent two peaks on the monthly chart.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:
On February 11, the economic calendar contains three events, two of which are considered very important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be strong in the second half of the day.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
In my opinion, the pair remains in the stage of forming a bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background continues to favor bulls, bears have regularly launched attacks in recent months. Nevertheless, I see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.
From imbalances 1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 8, and 9, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw a certain price increase, and the bullish trend remained intact. Last week, a new bullish signal was formed at imbalance 11, which once again allowed traders to open long positions with a target of 1.1976. This target was reached. This week, another bullish signal was formed at imbalance 12, giving traders a new opportunity to buy the pair. The formal targets are 1.2348 and 1.2564.
*এখানে পোস্ট করা মার্কেট বিশ্লেষণ আপনার সচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য প্রদান করা হয়, ট্রেড করার নির্দেশনা প্রদানের জন্য প্রদান করা হয় না।
ইন্সটাফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণমূলক পর্যালোচনাগুলো আপনাকে মার্কেট প্রবণতা সম্পর্কে পুরোপুরি সচেতন করবে! ইন্সটাফরেক্সের একজন গ্রাহক হওয়ায়, দক্ষ ট্রেডিং এর জন্য আপনাকে অনেক সেবা বিনামূল্যে প্রদান করা হয়।
