29.09.202609:56 Forex Analysis & Reviews: $4,000 — a New Reality

Gold prices staged a small rebound, rising 0.6% to climb above $4,100 per ounce. This modest gain followed a 4% drop in the previous session, when the metal hit its lowest level in more than seven weeks. Support for the precious metal came from a stabilization in the US Treasury sell-off: the 10-year yield settled around 5.23% after a sharp spike to a 19-year high driven by fading hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East.

Brent crude also continued its upward trend, rising for a second consecutive day. The move was fueled by reports that Iranian officials privately expressed deep pessimism about the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement with Washington before the US midterm elections in November.

September proved disappointing for gold: the price fell nearly 7% despite trading near $4,510 per ounce at the start of the month. Pressure on prices came from the Federal Reserve's decision — the first rate hike since 2023 — intended to combat persistent inflation, and from signals that further tightening may follow. High energy prices only strengthen the case for additional tightening, which is a headwind for non-yielding precious metals. Investors currently price in roughly a 70% chance of another rate hike in October.

Gold has also lost an important support area around $4,230. If US yields remain elevated, the zone near $4,000 — seen in June–July — will become the next serious psychological and technical test for the metal.

Federal Reserve Chair Lisa Cook warned on Monday that future gains in labor productivity driven by AI adoption may be insufficient to offset short-term price pressure. According to her, that could accelerate inflation across the economy — a negative for gold in the current environment, even though such developments might have been seen as supportive in different circumstances.

Technical picture: buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,186 to target $4,249, beyond which a breakout will be difficult. The farther target is $4,304. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of $4,124; if they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push Gold down to $4,062 with the prospect of reaching $4,047.