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US stocks have retraced back toward where the major sell-off at the end of last week began. The S&P 500 got a lifeline from technology leaders. Strong corporate reports from SpaceX, an eye-catching revenue figure in Anthropic's IPO prospectus, and encouraging commentary from NVIDIA and Meta Platforms helped calm investor nerves.
US equity index dynamics
Even though asset managers are trimming tech exposure in portfolios, the AI theme is not going away. It will be rekindled by headlines such as NVIDIA's announcement about supercomputers already in cloud deployments. Yes, investors worry that massive AI spending may not pay off — they need proof that revenues are rising. And whenever any positive signs appear, S&P 500 drawdowns tend to get bought.
Impressive Q3 results at SpaceX and merger rumors involving Tesla — potentially the largest ever — handed the broad market a rescue rope. So did Anthropic's IPO filing, which revealed $16.3 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026.
Tech giants are pulling the S&P 500 out of the abyss, and this is happening against a supportive macro backdrop. The Fed appears unlikely to tighten policy before December, Treasury yields have fallen to five-week lows, and history shows positive returns in the five months following primaries.
That said, conditions can change quickly. The current situation echoes events eight years ago, when political disappointment over the direction of the Trump administration increased the odds of a "blue wave" and raised the perceived risk of tighter policy. Newly-appointed Fed Chair Jerome Powell then showed hawkish tendencies, which drove up the probability of interest rate hikes and triggered a market sell-off.
S&P 500 behavior during primaries
The S&P 500 initially fell but then recovered lost ground — and if history repeats, that could create buying opportunities for those willing to pick up US equities at lower prices. In 2018, the odds of continued Fed tightening later eased, which became a tailwind for the broad market.
Today, markets put the odds of an October fed-funds hike at roughly 15% and a December increase at about 88%. Derivatives imply about 75 basis points of rate tightening over the next 12 months. If those expectations are too aggressive, that would be bullish for equities.
Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart shows consolidation above fair value and a rise to a fresh high. A break above 7,770 would support adding to existing long positions.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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