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The S&P 500 keeps setting records as if running on a single breath. Three out of four stocks in the index are celebrating far more modestly. Concerns about AI spending and an energy shock have eased for now. The broad market closed its fourth consecutive winning week, and OpenAI's $70 billion revenue guidance helped calm some of the AI euphoria.
Equity index dynamics
Bullish sentiment is supported by optimism from Goldman Sachs. The bank sees no sign of a classic bubble, which is usually accompanied by investor euphoria rather than the current anxiety.
Corporate earnings strength is a positive for the market. CFRA notes that the index's 117% rise since 2022 makes it the third-largest gain since 1947.
A threat to the rally's durability is narrow breadth: only a third of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 50-day moving average versus 70% in mid-August, and the equal-weighted index lags the cap-weighted version by 52 percentage points, marking the widest gap since 2022.
The AI boom has added nearly $40 trillion to the S&P 500's market cap. Nvidia has surged by more than 1,900% since late 2022, as if the stock rode a rocket, and now approaches a $6 trillion valuation. That concentration leaves the market vulnerable to violent swings if enthusiasm around the theme falters.
Fed rate dynamics and outlook
Bull markets typically broaden when the Fed cuts the federal funds rate. In 2022, however, the Fed raised interest rates to fight inflation, and companies cut earnings forecasts after the sharp tightening. Now, corporate America is enjoying one of the strongest earnings cycles, and the S&P 500 has posted double-digit gains for the seventh straight quarter.
Rising bond yields are squeezing small caps. The Russell 2000 is falling for a fifth consecutive week — its worst streak since May 2022 — down 5.7% over that span. Small firms have limited capital market access and rely on short-term borrowing tied to the funds rate. Experts at Catalyst Funds describe the situation as a double squeeze: borrowing costs rise while margins compress. Bank of America notes a growing wave of long-term debt that will need refinancing at higher rates.
In September, the Fed raised the funds rate for the first time in three years, and the market is watching for further moves to rein in inflation. So far, it has not stopped the S&P 500.
Technically, the daily chart shows that the broad index rebounded from fair value and formed a pin-bar recovery with a long lower wick. Those patterns supported initiating or adding long positions. The next trigger for S&P 500 buying would be a breakout above the pivot at 7,830.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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