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Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to trade at their lowest levels in recent times. Currently, the first cryptocurrency is trading around $60,000, its lowest level in nearly two years. There are still no signs of the downward trend that began last year coming to an end. There aren't even convincing liquidity removals to suggest a price reversal. The fundamental backdrop remains weak for the cryptocurrency segment, characterized mainly by low spot demand and capital outflows towards the artificial intelligence sector. Additionally, the fact that the Federal Reserve may raise rates several times in 2026 does not add a positive sentiment to the market. Thus, we still do not see grounds for the growth of the first and second cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, investor and billionaire Jeremy Grantham has stated that interest in cryptocurrencies will gradually wane as this asset class lacks intrinsic long-term value. According to Grantham, cryptocurrencies are purely speculative instruments. In other words, while investors purchase stocks based on a company's financial strength, potential, future profits, and development, cryptocurrencies are purchased solely on market sentiment. Grantham also noted that Bitcoin has failed to live up to expectations as a store of value. Its consistently high volatility does not allow investors to sleep soundly without worrying about the safety of their invested funds. The billionaire also noted that Bitcoin has lost 50% of its value in the last nine months, which is impossible for traditional gold, which has set new record highs in the same period.
"People do not use Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for store purchases, nor are they used for serious transactions. Bitcoin merely allows criminals to move money without leaving any trace. The blockchain technology is amazing, but this epithet is hardly applicable to Bitcoin," believes Grantham. Thus, future growth in Bitcoin may be linked only to the formation of bullish sentiment in the market, when most investors actively buy the first cryptocurrency again. For this, liquidity will be required, which is currently actively flowing into the AI sector. It would also be very beneficial for the Fed to resume easing monetary policy, making safer investment instruments less profitable.
Bitcoin continues to form a full downward trend. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of an upward trend beginning. The last bearish FVG formed in the $68,000 - $70,700 range, making this area a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin may react to the last bearish FVG, which will provide traders with another sell signal.
On the daily timeframe, the downward trend that began last August continues to form. The key pattern for selling remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe that the current downward trend has ended, as there are no signs of its completion for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. Ethereum has resumed its decline with targets of $1,391 and $788. On the 4-hour timeframe, the upward structure has been broken, confirming the resumption of the downward trend. The last three bearish FVGs have been worked out, and another sell signal may be formed in the near future.
CHOCH – change of trend structure.
Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders, which market makers use to establish their positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap. The price passes through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such an area, the price does not react but impulsively breaches it, then tests from the other side.
OB – Order Block. A candle where the market maker opens a position to collect liquidity to establish its own position in the opposite direction.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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