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The price of gold experienced its tenth consecutive daily decline amid increasing concerns about the war in the Middle East and its impact on inflation and global economic growth.
Yesterday, the price of gold dropped by 2.3% during yet another volatile trading session, falling to as low as $4,100 before recovering to around $4,500. The risk of a sharp increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve became the main catalyst for this decline. The postponement of US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure by President Donald Trump for five days provided a temporary respite from the sharp drop in gold prices, but shortly thereafter, several Iranian officials ruled out the possibility of negotiations.
While the delay in military action in Iran temporarily reduced tensions, the denial of negotiation possibilities by Iranian officials added fuel to the fire. This highlights the fragility of the current situation and the potential for further escalation, which could exert pressure on gold prices.
It is important to note that the current movements in the gold market may be harbingers of more significant changes. A combination of inflation expectations, geopolitical instability, and Fed policy creates a complex picture in which gold could either demonstrate significant growth or experience a correction. Many experts agree that high energy prices caused by the conflict have heightened inflationary risks and prompted investors to withdraw from their relatively liquid and profitable positions in gold in favor of other assets.
Despite Trump's announced five-day pause, the outcome of any negotiations and the continued passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. Even the recovery of previously damaged energy infrastructure will take time. This means that the inflation threat continues to put pressure on gold, as do expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and other central banks—a factor that hinders the rise of non-yielding precious metals.
Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,432. Achieving this will enable a target of $4,481, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,531. In the event of a decline in gold prices, bears will attempt to take control at $4,372. If successful, breaking through this range will deliver a serious blow to bull positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,304, with a potential further drop to $4,249.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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