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Yesterday, stock indices closed with gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.11%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.22%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.07%.
Futures on American and European stocks rose on Friday, as investors shifted their focus to the upcoming release of key inflation data in the United States ahead of the widely anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
Futures contracts for the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 indices climbed by 0.2%, while contracts for the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.4%. Asian indices recovered from a previous decline of 0.7% and have been demonstrating growth for the second week. The MSCI All Country World Index has increased over the past two weeks, sitting just 0.5% below the record high reached in late October. This growth is partly attributed to declining concerns about the valuation of tech companies and increasing confidence among traders that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its last meeting of the year.
"Equity markets have recovered most of their November losses, almost fully pricing in a rate cut at the FOMC meeting next week," wrote Barclays Plc in their note. "Seasonally, the last two weeks of the year are usually the best for equities, hence FOMO is in full swing again."
However, behind this optimistic rally are certain signs of caution. Firstly, despite the overall positive sentiment, some investors are expressing concerns about persistently high inflation, which could prompt the Fed to act more cautiously. Secondly, geopolitical tensions remain. Thirdly, while the tech sector is showing growth again, there are worries that the current valuations of some companies may be unjustifiably high, potentially leading to corrections in the future.
Later on Friday, Fed officials will receive updated data on their preferred inflation measure — the personal consumption expenditures price index. Also on the agenda is a report on income and spending for September, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. Economists are forecasting a third consecutive increase in the core index of 0.2%. If this occurs, the year-over-year figure will remain just below 3%, indicating stable but not volatile inflationary pressure.
Treasury yields stabilized after a sell-off in government bonds on Thursday, when data showed signs of resilience in the labor market. The number of US jobless claims last week fell to its lowest level in several years, indicating that employers are still largely retaining employees despite a wave of recent layoffs.
Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, stated that the Fed should lower interest rates at its meeting next week and predicted a 25 basis point cut.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,874. This will help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,896. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,914 mark, which will strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,854. A break below this level would quickly drive the trading instrument back to $6,837 and open the way to $6,819.
*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.
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