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28.09.202611:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders

Relevance up to 06:00 2026-09-29 UTC+00

For beginner traders, I recommend trading the wave structures that occur most frequently. Anyone who has studied wave analysis, even superficially, knows that impulsive structures consist of five waves, while corrective structures consist of three waves. After an impulsive structure is completed, a corrective structure begins, and vice versa. Of course, standard structures do not always occur in the real market, but when they do, beginner traders can trade based on them.

At present, we are dealing with a structure that may take a five-wave form. We saw a clear three-wave correction, which can be identified as wave 2 or wave B. Consequently, after its completion, the formation of a new impulsive structure began. The first wave of this structure was quite extended and does not contain any internal corrective waves. Therefore, a corrective wave may begin in the near future. At present, the pair has declined to 1.1365, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. The unsuccessful attempt to break below this level indicates that the market may be ready to form the long-awaited corrective wave.

I would also like to remind you that the news background often has a significant impact on the wave count. At present, based on the news background, it is difficult to expect further strengthening of the US dollar. In recent weeks, the wave count allowed for EUR/USD to rise, but the news pushed the price lower. The news-driven decline has ended, but the US dollar continues to strengthen.

News Background

The news background last week was relatively weak, which did not prevent the US dollar from remaining in demand. Market participants continue to price in the FOMC's monetary policy tightening, which is weighing on EUR/USD. The most difficult aspect of the current situation is that it is unclear when the market will finish pricing in this particular factor and when other factors will come into play. I would like to remind you that the ECB has already tightened monetary policy twice, but the market has not taken this into account. Consequently, this factor could be priced in at a later stage. This week, at least four important reports will be released in the United States, as well as an inflation report for the European Union, which is also significant. Therefore, there will be at least five reports, each of which may be ignored if it supports the euro and priced in aggressively if it supports the dollar. It is impossible to predict the results of these reports in advance, so the only option is to react to the data as they are released.

Based on everything stated above, I expect a corrective scenario this week and am using 1.1365 as the key reference level. As long as the price remains above this level, I expect at least a corrective wave to develop. I believe that geopolitical factors are currently not influencing market sentiment, so economic data and the 1.1365 level will be important this week.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within a downward trend segment that may take either a three-wave or five-wave form. After a decline of 280 basis points, it is reasonable to expect the formation of a corrective wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break below 1.1365, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level, would indicate that the market is ready to take partial profits on short positions, which could lead to a recovery toward 1.1420 and 1.1470, corresponding to the 161.8% and 127.2% Fibonacci levels, respectively. A break below 1.1365 would indicate that the market is ready for a decline toward 1.1274.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
  2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter the market.
  3. There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

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