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Fundamental analysis

22.09.202604:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on September 22? Review of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Review of macroeconomic releases:

Very few macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Tuesday, and none are particularly significant. In the euro area, the consumer-confidence index will be released, and in the US the weekly ADP employment report is due. Both releases are minor (third-tier) and are unlikely to provoke any market reaction. This week is light on big events overall; any notable price response is more likely to come from releases in the second half of the week.

Review of fundamental events:

Among Tuesday's fundamental items, several Federal Reserve officials will speak — notably Thomas Barkin and John Williams. However, the Fed met last week, raised the policy rate unanimously, and most FOMC members expect at least one more hike before year-end according to the dot-plot. Thus, the Fed's stance is already clear. Going forward, markets will be driven more by developments in the Middle East and incoming macro data than by Fed speeches.

The geopolitical backdrop remains poor. The US and Iran are not negotiating; the Strait of Hormuz remains at least partially closed; Iran-backed Houthi forces continue to blockade Saudi Arabia and attack its facilities. President Trump is expected to make a significant decision on Iran soon, though no one knows what it will be. We still see little chance of a near-term diplomatic settlement between Iran and the US.

General conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, currency pairs will likely try to correct again. The euro can be traded from the 1.1461–1.1474 area and the pound from the 1.3380–1.3386 area. Volatility today is likely to be low since no major events are scheduled.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range (flat), any pair can generate many false signals or may not produce any at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be acted upon only when volatility is high, and a trend line or trend channel confirms the trend.
5. If two levels are too close together (within 5-20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the right direction, a stop-loss should be set to break even.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.

Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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