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26.08.202614:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – August 26 (US Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test of 1.3624 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 1.3624 triggered the implementation of Scenario #2 for buying the pound, but the pair did not go on to make a significant rise.

A sharp decline in retail sales weakened the pound, preventing the buying scenario from being realized during the first half of the day. The index plunged to -48 points, and such a decline signaled a significant weakening in consumer demand. CBI retail sales are considered a timely indicator because they are based on surveys of retail companies and precede official statistics. Therefore, such a weak result immediately affected sentiment toward the British currency, especially since it was significantly worse than the previous readings.

The pound's direction will next be determined by a substantial batch of US economic data, as there are no significant domestic catalysts for the British currency today. The key releases will be the change in second-quarter GDP, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for July, and personal income and spending data. The day will conclude with a speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin. GDP reflects the pace of economic growth, while the PCE index serves as the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, so these data directly affect the strength of the dollar through these channels. The core PCE index will be particularly important. Accelerating inflation would increase the likelihood of a restrictive Fed policy, while easing inflation would reduce the reasons for the dollar to strengthen. Personal income and spending data will provide additional insight into the consumer sector, whose resilience has recently come into question.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.3635 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3656 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3656, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A continuation of the pound's upward trend today can be expected only if US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3618 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3635 and 1.3656 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3618 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3597, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound will return if the data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3635 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3618 and 1.3597 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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