For Traders

فاریکس تجزیہ

07.08.202609:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on August 7

It seems that buyers of risk assets have decided to step aside ahead of the important Friday reports from the US, leading to a strengthening of the dollar.

Yesterday's labor market report also supported the dollar. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 stood at 199,000, increasing by only 1,000 compared to the revised level from the previous week. This figure is released weekly and reflects how many people have applied for benefits for the first time; a value below 200,000 is traditionally considered a strong labor market with minimal layoffs. Such a low result confirmed job stability and strengthened the case for a hawkish Federal Reserve policy, bolstering the dollar.

Today, the focus regarding the euro will be on Germany's industrial production data and the trade balance. Industrial production reflects the output volume in the enterprises of the largest economy in the bloc and serves as an indicator of the real sector's health, while the trade balance shows the difference between exports and imports, which affects currency demand in the long run. However, both indicators are considered secondary, and they are unlikely to have a noticeable impact on market direction.

As for the pound, attention will be drawn to Lloyds' UK housing price index data. This indicator reflects the dynamics of residential property prices and indirectly indicates the state of consumer demand and household confidence, but it is not of great importance for traders. In terms of significance, the index is notably inferior to reports on inflation, the labor market, or business activity, which actually govern expectations regarding the Bank of England's interest rate, so a strong reaction from the pound is not expected.

In such a context, both the British currency and the euro become dependent on external forces, with the primary gauge for them remaining the sentiment surrounding the dollar.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.1530, which may lead to a rise of the euro to around 1.1541 and 1.1557;
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.1520, which may lead to a drop of the euro to around 1.1504 and 1.1482;

For GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.3460, which may lead to a rise of the pound to around 1.3498 and 1.3539;
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.3444, which may lead to a drop of the pound to around 1.3419 and 1.3393;

For USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout of level 158.57, which may lead to a rise of the dollar to around 158.83 and 159.13;
• Sell on a breakout of level 158.28, which may lead to a drop of the dollar to around 157.93 and 157.69;

Mean Reversion Strategy:

For EUR/USD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout beyond 1.1530 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout beyond 1.1516 on a return to this level;

For GBP/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 1.3460 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout beyond 1.3443 on a return to this level;

For AUD/USD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 0.7041 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout beyond 0.7022 on a return to this level;

For USD/CAD

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout beyond 1.4033 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout beyond 1.4005 on a return to this level;

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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