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03.07.202612:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – July 3

Today, euro trading was executed using a Mean Reversion strategy. I traded yen using the Momentum strategy.

Today is Independence Day in the United States, so U.S. stock exchanges and a significant number of financial markets are closed. The absence of a key market participant traditionally leads to a noticeable decline in trading activity: liquidity in the forex market decreases, and volatility amplitude also contracts. Against this backdrop, the second half of the day is likely to remain subdued, and no strong dollar-driven movements or meaningful impulses should be expected. For the euro, this means that EUR/USD is likely to remain in a narrow range: without U.S. liquidity flow, the single currency has no strong catalyst to move. A similar situation applies to the British pound — GBP/USD is likely to trade sideways, as in the absence of U.S. market participation, price action is driven only by local U.K. news flow, which is insufficient to establish a sustained trend today.

In the case of strong data releases, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1459 may lead to growth toward 1.1486 and 1.1527.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1422 may lead to a decline toward 1.1398 and 1.1365.

GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3355 may lead to growth toward 1.3390 and 1.3418.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3335 may lead to a decline toward 1.3298 and 1.3267.

USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout of 161.33 may lead to growth toward 161.56 and 161.83.
• Selling on a breakout of 161.00 may lead to a decline toward 160.80 and 160.50.

Mean Reversion strategy (reversion) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• I will look for sell positions after a failed breakout above 1.1463, on a move back below this level.
• I will look for buy positions after a failed breakout below 1.1430, on a return above this level.

GBP/USD

• I will look for sell positions after a failed breakout above 1.3383, on a move back below this level.
• I will look for buy positions after a failed breakout below 1.3336, on a return above this level.

AUD/USD

• I will look for sell positions after a failed breakout above 0.6959, on a move back below this level.
• I will look for buy positions after a failed breakout below 0.6926, on a return above this level.

USD/CAD

• I will look for sell positions after a failed breakout above 1.4192, on a move back below this level.
• I will look for buy positions after a failed breakout below 1.4169, on a return above this level.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2026

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