انسٹا فاریکس ٹیم میں لیجنڈ!
لیجنڈ!آپ کو لگتا ہے کہ یہ حیرت انگیز بیانات ہے؟ لیکن ہمیں ایسے شخص کو کیا کہنا چاہئے ، جو 18 سال میں جونیئر ورلڈ شطرنج چیمپئن شپ جیتنے والا پہلا ایشین بن گیا تھا اور 19 میں پہلا ہندوستانی گرینڈ ماسٹر بنا؟ ورلڈ چیمپیئن ٹائٹل کے لئے یہ مشکل آغاز تھا جو وشونااتھ آنند کے لئے تھا ، وہ شخص جو ہمیشہ کے لئے شطرنج کی تاریخ کا حصہ بن گیا تھا۔ انسٹا فاریکس ٹیم میں اب ایک اور لیجنڈ!
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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD advanced to the resistance level at 1.3268–1.3277 before reversing in favor of the U.S. dollar without a clear rejection from that area. The pair has since started to decline toward the support level at 1.3158–1.3177. A sustained move above the 1.3268–1.3277 resistance level would increase the likelihood of further gains toward the next resistance level at 1.3349–1.3355.
The wave structure turned bearish following the FOMC meeting. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave failed to exceed the previous high. It remains uncertain how much momentum the bears still have, as the fundamental support for the U.S. dollar is not particularly convincing. Nevertheless, setting wave analysis aside, bears continue to dominate the market, while geopolitical developments and the FOMC's monetary policy continue to support further gains in the U.S. dollar.
Monday's news flow was driven almost entirely by geopolitical developments, and on Tuesday, tensions in the Middle East remained the dominant theme. At times, it is extremely difficult to determine what is actually happening in negotiations between the United States and Iran, as the two countries often struggle even to agree on holding a meeting to continue discussions on the most contentious issues required to bring the conflict to a final resolution.
Today, reports emerged that Iran is seriously considering joint control of the Strait of Hormuz together with Oman, as well as introducing transit fees for vessels passing through the strait. The proposed charges could amount to millions of dollars per vessel. Given the significant financial interests involved, this issue has attracted considerable attention, as the Strait of Hormuz has traditionally been regarded as an international waterway. However, Tehran maintains that it has the right to impose such fees. Washington insists that the strait should remain open to free navigation for all countries, as it was before the conflict. In addition, Iran continues to reject direct negotiations with the United States, agreeing to communicate only through intermediaries such as Pakistan or Qatar. Tehran argues that Washington has repeatedly violated the terms of previous agreements and states that no further direct discussions will take place until the United States fully complies with its commitments, including restoring Iran's access to its frozen assets.
On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3159, reversed in favor of the pound, and continued advancing toward the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3277, where the rally stalled following a bearish divergence on the CCI indicator. A sustained move above 1.3277 would allow traders to expect continued growth toward the next 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
Sentiment among the Non-commercial group became more bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculative traders declined by 1,271, while Short positions increased by 32,863. The current balance stands at approximately 41,000 Long positions versus 147,000 Short positions. Bears have dominated positioning for several months. However, while this dominance previously appeared well supported, the changing fundamental backdrop has made it less convincing. Short positions now outnumber long positions by more than three to one.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the British pound. In the near term, however, market direction will depend less on economic data, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy than on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has shifted toward expectations of peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States could prove lengthy and difficult, with no guarantee that they will ultimately result in a nuclear agreement.
Economic Calendar
United Kingdom
United States
The economic calendar for June 30 contains only two scheduled releases, neither of which is expected to have a significant impact on the market. Therefore, macroeconomic data is unlikely to influence market sentiment during Tuesday's session.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations
Short positions may be considered following a rejection from the 1.3268–1.3277 resistance level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3158–1.3177. Long positions were previously possible after a rebound from the 1.3158–1.3177 support level, targeting 1.3268–1.3277. That target was almost reached. New long positions may be considered following a sustained breakout above the 1.3268–1.3277 resistance level, with a target at 1.3349–1.3355.
Fibonacci retracement grids are based on the 1.3158–1.3655 range on both the hourly and the 4-hour charts.
*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.
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