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16.06.202607:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 16

As we can see, even though the war between the US and Iran in the Middle East is on pause and, according to Trump, a peace agreement is close, traders are reluctant to react to these words without a confirming document.

It appears that Trump's statements about reaching a preliminary peace agreement with Iran are no longer enough for traders. The lack of specifics creates uncertainty, and uncertainty is the main enemy of financial markets. In periods of information vacuum, traders prefer to transfer funds to more reliable assets, such as the dollar, thereby avoiding the volatility associated with emerging markets and risk currencies. The euro, being one of the most liquid and actively traded currencies, responds sensitively to such sentiments, demonstrating weakness.

Delays in disclosing details may indicate the complexity of the reached agreements or the presence of internal disagreements that still need to be resolved.

Today, the focus will shift to the consumer price index data from Italy, the ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the eurozone, and the current situation index for Germany. The consumer price index data from Italy holds primary importance. This is one of the key indicators of inflation in the largest economy of the eurozone, and its dynamics directly influence the European Central Bank's expectations regarding future monetary policy. If the indicator shows a slowdown in growth or a decline, it could lead to reduced risks, which would put pressure on the euro.

Next, traders will turn their attention to the business sentiment indices from the authoritative ZEW institute for Germany and the eurozone. These leading indicators reflect business expectations. The ZEW report helps assess how optimistic or pessimistic German and European entrepreneurs are about the future state of the economy. Negative numbers indicating a deterioration in expectations could serve as a warning signal for traders, foreshadowing a possible decline in business activity and, consequently, a weakening of the euro.

As for the pound, there are again no important reports scheduled for the United Kingdom today. The lack of significant macroeconomic data capable of reversing the negative trend leaves the currency vulnerable to external factors and market sentiment. Traders are likely to continue locking in profits from long positions, thereby increasing pressure on the British currency. The key factors that could support the pound remain high inflation and the high likelihood that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this week.

Geopolitical tension and global geopolitical risks also continue to put pressure on risk assets.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is the most appropriate.

Momentum Strategy (on Breakouts):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Long positions on a breakout of level 1.1595 may lead to an increase in the euro to the area of 1.1620 and 1.1645;

Short positions on a breakout of level 1.1566 may lead to a decline in the euro to the area of 1.1535 and 1.1506;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Longs on a breakout of level 1.3415 may lead to an increase in the pound to the area of 1.3441 and 1.3462;

Shorts on a breakout of level 1.3388 may lead to a decline in the pound to the area of 1.3359 and 1.3331;

For the USD/JPY Pair

Longs on a breakout of level 160.24 may lead to an increase in the dollar to the area of 160.43 and 160.67;

Shorts on a breakout of level 160.02 may lead to a drop in the dollar to the area of 159.83 and 159.60;

Mean Reversion Strategy (on Retracements):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1597 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1564 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3418 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3375 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7065 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.7040 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

Shorts will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4023 on a return below this level;

Longs will be sought after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3996 on a return to this level;

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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