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07.05.202608:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on May 7

The US dollar is under pressure; however, by the middle of the North American session, it had regained much of its ground against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets.

It appears that traders who believed Trump's words have once again found themselves at a loss. The euphoria from the potential peace agreement between the US and Iran quickly vanished as it became evident that Tehran would not agree to the US demands regarding uranium enrichment. Markets that enthusiastically reacted to the news of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East yesterday found themselves confused. Clearly, without substantial concessions from Iran, significant changes in the geopolitical landscape are unlikely.

Today, in the first half of the day, financial markets will focus on important macroeconomic data from the Eurozone and Germany. In particular, retail sales data from the Eurozone is expected. These figures are indicators of consumer activity and can provide insight into the overall state of the regional economy. Strong retail sales data typically support the euro, while weak data could lead to its depreciation.

Simultaneously, Germany, the Eurozone's largest economy, will present data on changes in industrial orders. This indicator reflects the state of the manufacturing sector and is an important leading indicator for future economic activity.

As for the pound, today's trading day will be marked by the release of the important index of business activity in the UK construction sector. Economists predict that this indicator is unlikely to reach the level of 50 points, which generally indicates a decline in construction activity. Such a scenario could put noticeable pressure on the British currency. The construction sector plays a significant role in the country's economy, and its slowdown could affect overall growth rates and investor sentiment regarding the British pound's future prospects.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout at 1.1762 could lead to an increase in the euro to around 1.1796 and 1.1823;

Sell on a breakout at 1.1745 could lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1720 and 1.1700;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout at 1.3615 could lead to an increase in the pound to around 1.3654 and 1.3683;

Sell on a breakout at 1.3579 could lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3547 and 1.3514;

For the USD/JPY Pair

Buy on a breakout at 156.73 could lead to an increase in the dollar to around 157.05 and 157.40;

Sell on a breakout at 156.33 could lead to a sell-off in the dollar to around 155.96 and 155.56;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1766 on a return below that level;

Look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1739 on a return to that level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3612 on a return below that level;

Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3580 on a return to that level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7258 on a return below that level;

Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.7230 on a return to that level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3644 on a return below that level;

Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3621 on a return to that level;

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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