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29.04.202612:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – April 29th

Today, the British pound, the euro, and the Canadian dollar were traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. I did not execute any trades using the Momentum strategy.

Data on lending in the Eurozone and the M3 money supply had no impact on the euro's exchange rate. The pound also remained ignored by traders amid a lack of any significant statistics. The market appears to be in a state of relative expectation (wait-and-see mode), focusing exclusively on upcoming statements from Federal Reserve officials. The second half of the day is expected to be more active, as attention will be centered on the Federal Open Market Committee's decision regarding the key interest rate.

Particular importance is attached to the upcoming press conference, during which Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak for the last time in his current role. His comments, analyzed under a microscope, will not only clarify the decision taken but may also hint at the regulator's future steps. His final remarks in such a responsible position will carry weight, shaping medium-term expectations regarding the trajectory of interest rates and other monetary policy tools. Any deviation from consensus expectations could trigger sharp market movements, creating both opportunities for profitable speculation and risks for unwary investors.

Data on U.S. durable goods orders and building permits are also expected. However, all attention will clearly be on the Fed's decision.

In the case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1705 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1727 and 1.1753;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1685 may lead to a decline toward 1.1670 and 1.1645;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3515 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3540 and 1.3575;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3490 may lead to a decline toward 1.3465 and 1.3440;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.85 may lead to dollar growth toward 160.10 and 160.30;
• Selling on a breakout below 159.70 may lead to selling toward 159.40 and 158.99;

Mean Reversion Strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.1711 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.1692 followed by a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3513 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3488 followed by a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 0.7170 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 0.7145 followed by a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a false breakout above 1.3696 followed by a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a false breakout below 1.3673 followed by a return to this level.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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