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The FX market is frozen, awaiting the resolution of this week's key intrigue. Today, the deadline of Donald Trump's ultimatum to Iran expires, and it will become clear whether the current conflict will escalate into a new wave of hostilities or whether the parties will agree to a temporary ceasefire and sit down at the negotiating table. Time is short, and therefore EUR/USD traders have adopted a defensive stance.
The pair is trading in a narrow range for the second day running, and traders even ignored an important macro release — the ISM index — published yesterday in the US. All of this indicates that the directional vector for EUR/USD now depends entirely on geopolitics, namely on Washington's next moves and on Tehran's response. By the end of today, either risk appetite will recover (supporting the euro, among others), or the dollar will reassert itself, benefiting from its safe-haven status.
Although only hours remain until the ultimatum expires, it is still unclear whether the parties are ready for a compromise. According to The New York Times, Tehran submitted a 10-point settlement plan to the US, calling for a full lifting of sanctions on Iran, cessation of strikes, and guarantees of non-aggression. In addition, the Iranians demand compensation from the United States for the restoration of damaged infrastructure — in other words, reparations. Regarding the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran set out its own terms: Iran would unblock the route but proposes charging a fee of $2 million per vessel. In effect, the Strait of Hormuz would become a commercial passage, similar to the Suez or Panama canals.
Notably, Donald Trump did not dismiss Iran's proposals out of hand — he called them a "substantial offer," but nonetheless "not good enough." Trump's contradictory statements make it impossible to assess the chances of an agreement unambiguously. The suspense remains, and that means any trading decisions on EUR/USD remain risky.
If the parties agree to a temporary ceasefire, the pair will spike toward the 1.16 area, driven by renewed risk appetite. In that scenario macro releases will return to the foreground, and most of them will argue against the dollar.
Recall that the strong headline NFP numbers for March failed to impress the market. A closer look at the report reveals persistent structural problems. Take the unemployment rate, which formally fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. On the one hand, this looks positive, but on the other hand, it is not the result of active hiring — people simply stop looking for work because of a lack of prospects or disappointment in the labor market. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.9%, signaling a reduction in labor supply. Meanwhile, the BLS statistical methodology treats those returning to work after strikes as job creation, which mechanically lowers the unemployment rate. Chronic unemployment — the number of people unemployed for more than 27 weeks — rose by 322,000 over the past year. Incidentally, the headline NFP increase in March (+178,000) was also driven by a technical factor: BLS counted the return of strikers (large healthcare strikes occurred in February) as "job creation," although in substance this was a technical restoration of people to their prior posts.
The ISM services index, published yesterday in the US, also raised more questions than answers. Although the indicator remains in expansion territory, it decelerated to 54.0, down from 56.1. The structure of the report signals negative trends. In particular, the employment subindex plunged by 6.6 points (from 51.8 to 45.2), falling into contraction for the first time in four months. Several factors explain this dynamic: a shortage of skilled labor and a hiring freeze due to rising uncertainty and high costs.
Moreover, the ISM report shows a sharp slowdown in business activity: the corresponding subindex fell to 53.9, from 59.9. This is the lowest reading since September last year. Retail and healthcare sectors suffered most, with business activity already contracting. At the same time, the prices-paid subindex jumped from 63.0 in February to 70.7, the highest level since October 2022. All this points to growing stagflation risks.
Thus, a weak NFP report and the mixed ISM services print work against the greenback, but opening long positions in EUR/USD right now is very risky. The further trajectory of the pair will depend on the willingness of the US and Iran to reach agreement. If events follow a de-escalation scenario, the pair will head for the 1.16 area, fueled by weak macro prints. If Trump implements his threats, however, the safe-haven dollar will be in demand again, and EUR/USD will move down toward the 1.14 area—to the support at 1.1440 (the lower Bollinger Band on the D1 timeframe). In such uncertain conditions, it is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see position on the pair.
*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.
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