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31.03.202608:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 31. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro Currency

The test of the price at 1.1485 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf, US President Donald Trump expressed readiness to end military operations against Iran, even if restrictions on movement in the Strait of Hormuz remain largely in place. This statement provoked a positive reaction in the financial markets; however, it is unlikely that anyone seriously believed his words. Oil prices, which had been rising in recent weeks due to concerns over supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, began to decline, weakening demand for the dollar and leading to the strengthening of risk assets.

Today's European trading session is expected to be lively following the release of key macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. These figures can significantly influence the euro's exchange rate against other currencies. Market participants will particularly focus on data from Germany. Firstly, traders should closely examine the report on retail sales volume in Germany for February. This indicator serves as an excellent barometer of consumer activity and the overall state of domestic demand in the engine of the European economy. Any significant deviations from expectations may cause noticeable movements in the financial markets. At the same time, the market awaits Germany's unemployment data. An increase in unemployment could directly affect consumer sentiment and, consequently, the dynamics of retail sales. Analyzing these indicators will allow for an assessment of the current state of the German economy and forecasts for its future development.

Additionally, the focus will also be on the Eurozone's Consumer Price Index figures, including core prices. These values play a crucial role in assessing inflationary pressure in the region and serve as guidelines for the European Central Bank's decisions. An acceleration in inflation, which is likely, could prompt policy tightening. However, whether this will lead to a strengthening of the euro in the current situation is a rather complex question.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro can be done when the price reaches around 1.1481 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1519. At 1.1519, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can expect the euro to grow only after very strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1462 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is oversold. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1481 and 1.1519.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1462 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1426, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1481 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1462 and 1.1426.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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