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25.03.202621:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. Smart Money. The British pound is in no hurry

Relevance up to 12:00 UTC--4

The GBP/USD pair has shown some growth over the past few days, but this has not resulted in the formation of a new pattern, signal, or liquidity grab. The direction of movement changed almost every day during this period, while trader activity remained very high. The market continues to move back and forth as the news background changes almost daily. Most of the news concerns the "Iranian crisis": conciliatory statements are coming from the United States, while Iran's rhetoric remains more aggressive. In other words, Washington is now trying to end the war, but on its own terms. From the outside, it looks like this: let's end the war that we started—here is a list of ultimatums. Iran understands the implications of such a "Trump-style ceasefire" and is simply refusing any negotiations that require significant concessions. Tehran is also prepared to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, the geopolitical backdrop remains more negative than positive. As a result, the pound's growth is limited. Meanwhile, the economic background that could support the British currency is being largely ignored by traders.

Exchange Rates 25.03.2026 analysis

At present, there are no bullish patterns, and without them traders have no basis for opening long positions. Considering how price fluctuates sharply in both directions each day, the absence of patterns may even be beneficial. The probability of a new decline in both pairs remains quite high, and all discussions about a possible bullish advance are still assumptions without confirmation or factual support. Currently, there are no patterns at all—neither new nor old. The last two imbalances can be considered completed or invalidated, as price no longer reacts to them. There have also been no significant liquidity grabs recently. Therefore, new patterns need to form before any clear trading opportunities emerge.

The bullish trend for the pound remains intact. As long as it holds (above the 1.3012 level), more attention should be paid to bullish signals. However, there are currently no bullish patterns or signals, and geopolitics continues to weigh heavily on both the euro and the pound.

Wednesday's news background could have supported the pound, as inflation in the UK for February came in slightly higher. Core consumer prices increased, while the main acceleration is expected in March. If inflation continues to rise as the Bank of England expects, this would provide a solid basis for bullish activity—if not for geopolitics.

In the United States, the overall information backdrop remains such that, in the long term, little can be expected other than weakness in the dollar. The conflict between the US and Iran does not change this. The situation for the US dollar remains difficult in the long term, while only short-term support exists. US labor market data continues to disappoint more often than it provides positive surprises. Trump's military actions, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, EU countries, Canada, and South Korea, legal proceedings involving Jerome Powell, government shutdowns, the scandal involving US elites related to the Epstein case, the possibility of Trump's impeachment by the end of the year, and a likely Republican election loss all contribute to the current picture of political and structural challenges in the United States. In my view, bulls have sufficient grounds to resume an upward movement in 2026, but at present, traders are focused primarily on geopolitics and the energy situation.

A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive information background for the US dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump and is unlikely to be provided by geopolitics. However, uncertainty remains high. If a large-scale global conflict were to begin and military actions expanded beyond the Middle East into Eurasia, the dollar could strengthen significantly and for a prolonged period. However, I remain somewhat optimistic and hope this does not occur. In that case, the dollar's growth potential would remain limited by negative developments in the Middle East.

News calendar for the US and the UK:

US – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).

On March 26, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The impact of news on market sentiment on Thursday is expected to be very limited or absent.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

For the pound, the long-term outlook remains bullish, but there are currently no active bullish patterns. The sharp decline of the pair in recent weeks resulted from a combination of unfavorable factors. If Donald Trump had not initiated military actions in the Middle East, such a strong rise in the dollar would likely not have occurred. This decline could end as unexpectedly as it began. However, at present, the bearish phase cannot be considered over. Imbalance 17 has been invalidated, but this has not led to the emergence of new bullish patterns.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

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