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17.03.202608:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on March 17

The dollar has lost ground against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets, which has objective reasons.

Following rumors that the US and Iran have returned to negotiations regarding the resolution of the military conflict, demand for the US dollar has decreased. This news, which spread across financial markets, triggered a wave of optimism, as a potential diplomatic solution reduces geopolitical risks that traditionally support demand for safe-haven assets like the dollar. Against this backdrop, we are witnessing some weakening of the dollar's position against a basket of major currencies. In particular, the euro has shown moderate growth, recovering some of its recent losses. A similar dynamic is observed with other currencies, including the British pound, albeit to a lesser extent.

Today's morning promises to be eventful in terms of macroeconomic data and official statements. In the first half of the day, traders will focus on the Italian consumer price index data. This indicator is a key measure of inflationary processes in the largest economy of the Eurozone and could significantly impact market sentiment. Alongside the Italian data, the ZEW economic sentiment indices for the Eurozone and Germany will be published. These indices reflect business expectations regarding the future state of the economy and often serve as leading indicators, signaling potential trends in the manufacturing sector and consumer spending.

In addition, today will mark a statement from the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. Statements from the head of the German central bank, who is one of the most influential representatives of the European Central Bank, always attract heightened interest.

As for the British pound, the situation is quite the opposite. Today's trading is expected to be relatively calm, with no major UK macroeconomic data. The absence of planned publications of significant data means that the market will likely continue to follow the trend established last evening. The observed upward movement, gaining strength, may serve as a basis for further growth of the pound. If no new negative factors or unexpected statements from Bank of England representatives emerge, buying interest in the British currency, reignited by yesterday's rally, will likely persist.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly higher or lower than what economists expected, it is advisable to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Long positions on a breakout of level 1.1505 may lead to an increase in the euro to around 1.1535 and 1.1565;

Short positions on a breakout of level 1.1480 may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1448 and 1.1414;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Longs on a breakout of level 1.3317 may lead to an increase in the pound to around 1.3340 and 1.3367;

Shorts on a breakout of level 1.3280 may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3250 and 1.3220;

For the USD/JPY Pair

Longs on a breakout of level 159.47 may lead to an increase in the dollar to around 159.74 and 159.94;

Shorts on a breakout of level 159.18 may lead to a decline in the dollar to around 158.81 and 158.53;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.1513 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.1479 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3325 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3291 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.7103 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.7055 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3692 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3674 on a return to this level;

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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