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10.03.202612:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on March 10th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.62 price level occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly below the zero line, so I missed the selling opportunity and the entire downward movement of the pair. However, buying on the rebound from 157.34 proved timely, leading to a reverse move of more than 30 points.

Going forward, only a strong report on U.S. existing home sales and positive weekly employment data from the ADP Employment Report are likely to restore demand for the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen. The release of these macroeconomic data points would demonstrate the resilience of the U.S. economy and could renew investor interest in the dollar. If existing home sales exceed expectations, it would signal strong consumer confidence and accessible mortgage lending, which is a positive sign for the overall economic outlook. At the same time, a strong ADP employment report would confirm continued growth in private-sector job creation, a key indicator of labor market health. The combination of these positive signals would be an important factor for traders and for the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 157.84 (green line on the chart), with a target of 158.29 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.29, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move. The pair may rise today after strong economic statistics.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.58 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 157.84 and 158.29 may then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 157.88 level is updated (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.16, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move. Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.84 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 157.58 and 157.16 may then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price where the instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – expected level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price where the instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – expected level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange-rate fluctuations.

If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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