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03.03.202608:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on March 3

The US dollar continued its active rise against the euro, pound, yen, and other assets amid the escalating geopolitical conflict.

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and bombings in Iran were the main reasons for yesterday's dollar growth. However, positive data on the US ISM manufacturing index also supported the American currency. Tension in the region, where the escalation of military actions between Israel, the US, and Iran reached its peak, triggered a sharp increase in the dollar, amplifying global uncertainty. The strong ISM data for the US manufacturing sector, which exceeded analysts' expectations, confirmed the resilience of the American economy amid the global slowdown.

This morning, data on the Eurozone consumer price index for February this year and the core consumer price index are expected. If inflation in the Eurozone is lower than analysts' forecasts, it will increase pressure on the European currency, raising expectations for further easing of the European Central Bank's monetary policy.

As for the British pound, the UK's annual budget is expected to be published today. Traders are anticipating this event, as industry experts predict a positive outcome after adjustments in tax policy and government spending. However, if the Chancellor of the Exchequer announces a deficit exceeding £100 billion, this could trigger a sell-off of British bonds and strengthen the dollar's position.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the results are significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the most suitable.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout of 1.1695 may lead to a rise of the euro to around 1.1724 and 1.1748;

Sell on a breakout of 1.1660 may lead to a decline of the euro to around 1.1630 and 1.1600;

For the GBP/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout of 1.3385 may lead to a rise of the pound to around 1.3400 and 1.3421;

Sell on a breakout of 1.3390 may lead to a decline of the pound to around 1.3310 and 1.3280;

For the USD/JPY Pair

Buy on a breakout of 157.50 may lead to a rise of the dollar to around 157.75 and 158.10;

Sell on a breakout of 157.33 may lead to a dollar sell-off to around 157.05 and 156.77;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

I will look for short positions after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1711 on a return below this level;

I will look for long positions after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1664 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3423 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3343 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7127 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.7090 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

I will look for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3684 on a return below this level;

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3655 on a return to this level;

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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