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05.02.202608:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on February 5

The dollar continues to strengthen against the euro, the pound, and the Japanese yen.

Yesterday's weak ADP labor market data showed only a 22,000 increase, well below the forecast of nearly 40,000. However, this was offset by a positive ISM services report from the US, which created some uncertainty. On the one hand, the slowdown in employment growth could push the Fed towards a softer approach, but the resilience of the services sector signals ongoing economic strength.

Ahead of the European Central Bank meeting, markets are holding their breath. We have incoming data on changes in industrial orders in Germany and retail sales in the Eurozone, but all attention will be focused on the ECB's decision regarding the key interest rate and Christine Lagarde's press conference. Her statements will determine the future trajectory of the euro and the prospects for economic growth in the region. Key questions will center on inflation forecasts, labor market prospects, and the ECB's readiness for further rate cuts.

As for the pound, today the UK will see the release of the PMI for the construction sector, along with expectations regarding the Bank of England's interest rate decision and a speech from Governor Andrew Bailey. The construction PMI index will provide important information on sector activity, serving as a barometer of the country's economic health. A decline in the index may signal a slowdown in growth, while an increase indicates a strengthening sector and potential GDP growth.

The BoE's interest rate decision is one of the most anticipated events in the financial markets. Faced with high inflation and slowing economic growth, the central bank faces the tough task of balancing price control with maintaining economic activity. Given that a rate cut could support the economy but worsen the inflation problem, it is unlikely the central bank will make changes. Andrew Bailey's speech will certainly draw close attention, as traders will be keen to hear his comments and understand the rationale behind the decision, and to gain insights into future steps from the Bank of England.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy will be most effective.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above the level of 1.1810, which could lead to an increase in the euro towards the levels of 1.1850 and 1.1870;
• Sell on a breakout below the level of 1.1780, which could lead to a decline in the euro towards the levels of 1.1740 and 1.1710;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above the level of 1.3623, which could lead to an increase in the pound towards the levels of 1.3656 and 1.3691;
• Sell on a breakout below the level of 1.3600, which could result in a decline in the pound towards the levels of 1.3570 and 1.3539;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout above the level of 157.05, which could lead to a rise in the dollar towards the levels of 157.40 and 157.70;
• Sell on a breakout below the level of 156.70, which could lead to a sell-off in the dollar towards the levels of 156.40 and 156.07;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1810 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1770 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3655 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3599 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6990 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.6945 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3706 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3655 on a return to this level;

*تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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