30.06.202616:16 Forex Analyse & Reviews: Strategy restructures its model: $1.25bn Bitcoin sale and end of unconditional accumulation

While Bitcoin still can't regain the $60,000 level — a sign it may be preparing for another large drop — Michael Saylor's company Strategy announced a broad overhaul of the financial model underpinning its Bitcoin strategy. This is a major signal for the whole crypto market. Here's why.

Yesterday, the company said it may sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to boost its cash reserve and launched two buyback programs for common and preferred shares of up to $1 billion each. Strategy also pledged to be more disciplined in issuing common stock, especially when shares trade near the value of the company's Bitcoin holdings.

The board set a new policy: maintain a minimum cash reserve equal to at least 12 months of expected dividend payments on preferred shares plus interest expenses. After selling common stock last week, the company's cash reserves stood at $2.55 billion, and dividends on STRC preferred shares were raised to 12%. The market reacted strongly: common shares jumped roughly 13%, the largest one-day gain in nearly four months.

Behind the technical details of the restructuring lies an admission of a fundamental problem with Saylor's endless Bitcoin purchases. For years, the model was self-reinforcing: issue securities, invest proceeds in Bitcoin, watch asset values rise, issue new securities. That scheme relied on a financial advantage that evaporated last Friday.

The company's report says that mNAV — the ratio of the company's market valuation (adjusted for debt and preferred shares) to the value of its Bitcoin — fell below parity and turned negative. That is precisely the signal many experts warned about, fearing structural problems at the firm.

But the model change matters far beyond Strategy itself. Demand for Bitcoin in recent years increasingly depended on institutional buyers, and Strategy was one of the largest sources of that incremental demand. Now, as the company shifts from unconditional accumulation to active liquidity management with the possibility of sales, the market is forced to rethink not only Saylor's strategy but also one of the key pillars of the entire bullish narrative.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $60,600, which opens a straight path to $62,600 and then to $64,000; a break above that would signal attempts to re-establish the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $58,500. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $56,100. The farthest target would be around $53,600.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,582 opens a direct path to $1,645. The farther target is the high near $1,725; a break above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On a decline, I expect buyers at $1,515. A move below that area could quickly send ETH toward $1,433, with the farthest target around $1,338.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.