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Rumors of a US–Iran deal sent US stock indices higher. The Dow Jones and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit record highs, and the S&P 500 closed in within arm's reach. Investors see the end of the Middle East conflict as evidence that the US economy will be stronger. Combined with the ongoing frenzy around SpaceX shares and a lower probability of Fed tightening, this has turned the traffic light green for an equity rally.
JP Morgan believes that falling oil prices could be a powerful driver of the S&P 500 rally. Brent could drop to $70 per barrel in the coming weeks as the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz would release massive flows of oil. That would lower gasoline costs, prompt Americans to spend more on other goods and services, and accelerate the economy. The bank has called for buying the broad equity index, having only recently advocated tactical caution.
A BlackRock asset manager says that lower geopolitical risk will lead to a flow of capital from money-market funds into equities. Large financial institutions have around $8–9 trillion at their disposal. Such an avalanche of money could push the S&P 500 well above 8,000.
Morgan Stanley also agrees with a continued rally in the broad index. The bank says the end of the armed conflict in the Middle East allows investors to refocus on companies that had been hurt by high oil prices, elevated US Treasury yields, and a strong dollar. Portfolio diversification toward new winners should help the overall stock market.
Meanwhile, the SpaceX frenzy shows no signs of slowing. The issuer's shares climbed another 20% after a 19% rally on the first day of secondary-market trading. By market capitalization, the company is approaching tech giants like Amazon. In an official release, it said it raised $85.7 billion at the IPO, not the $75 billion previously expected.
Despite its success, SpaceX's results don't match the scale of NVIDIA — whose stock jumped 66% on day one — Tesla (+41%), Microsoft (+33%), Apple and Amazon (+31%). Still, strong interest in Elon Musk's company, together with other factors, supports gains in the broad stock index. Only a hawkish surprise from Kevin Warsh could stop the rally, but that currently looks unlikely.
Technically, on the daily chart, the S&P 500 tested fair value at 7,580. The first attempt failed, but a successful second test would allow earlier long positions to be scaled up. The initial target of 7,700 is approaching and can already be raised to 7,880 and 7,960.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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